Last Updated on: 10/16/99 10:22:30 PM YHOO Message Boards YHOO Chat Room
www.yahoo.com
INTERNET SECTOR
Content
 
Optionable
Current Play?
YESNO
Current Status
Neutral

Business Summary:
 
Yahoo! Inc is a global Internet media company that offers an online guide to web navigation, a branded network of comprehensive information, communication services, and shopping access to millions of users daily. Yahoo! can lay claim to the top spot among Internet portals. The Web site gets nearly 31 million visitors each month. It's also one of the few Internet players operating in the black. The bulk of Yahoo's revenue comes from its 3800 advertisers and their banners. Recently, Yahoo! has purchased Geocities and has agreed to purchase Broadcast.com which will give them access to Web-based audio and video.



Charts courtesy of BigCharts.Com
--SNAPSHOT--
 
Next Earnings: 1/6/1999
 
First Call's Estimate: $0.11
 
1 yr. ago $0.05
 
Split Candidate
again at:
$200
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CLOSING SHORT PLAY!!
10/17/99 $169.56 HIT TARGET AT $167

It was fun while it lasted, but we decided to end our profitable play on YHOO. The reason why we decided to drop the play is because we hit our target price at $167 during Fridayís trading session. Considering the extent of Fridayís decline in the markets, Yahoo held up quite well, trading higher during one point of the trading session. Yahoo also showed support around this area and managed to bounce convincingly during the week. The play has worked well for our investors. From the turning point in the stock, we managed to grab a $27 free-fall, resulting in some nice returns. It was a great play while it lasted, but all good things must come to an end.

Picked on Oct 6rd at $190.25
Closed on Oct 17th at $167.00

Profit/loss = +23.25 or +12.20%
Best profit = +24.94 or +13.11%

SHORT UPDATE!!
10/14/99 $173.38 TARGET=167.00 STOP=200.00 RISK=5

Another wild ride on the markets continue to confuse investors whether to buy or sell. Yahoo investors were no exception to this current trading pattern. The stock finished the trading session on a higher note, however; did trade lower at one point in the day. Even though the stock closed the day on the upside we feel this is only a slight stall to even lower levels. With so much uncertainty within the broader markets, another down day is inevitable, itís just a question of when. Tomorrow, Producer Price Index numbers will be released, which should influence the market and our play one way or another. If the numbers are above expectations, expect a negative reaction by investors. Yahoo announced today that they have teamed with Motorola to offer Internet services to wireless devices. Continue to use caution with this play. The possibilities of lower levels exist for YHOO, however; keep your stops tight to be safe.

Picked on Oct 3rd at $190.25
Change since picked -16.87

SHORT UPDATE!!
10/12/99 $173.88 TARGET=167.00 STOP=200.00 RISK=5.0

Profit takers took center stage today, closing markets lower a note. Yahoo investors were in the same boat, selling shares, producing nice profits for our investors. Our post earnings play is working like a charm. It took a couple trading sessions before it kicked into gear, but now it's in full swing. Profit taking on the broader markets was icing on the cake, adding fuel to the declining stock. YHOO, with little resistance, fell though its 10-dma at $179 and is heading for our target price of $167. If history is any indication of the future, the stock should have no trouble breaking this level as well. When placing new trades, watch for slight intraday spikes in the stock. The last few trading sessions Yahoo has closed near its low, leaving little room for bargain hunters. The stocks downward momentum should continue, especially if the broader markets head south. This is a likely possibility, considering Intel missed their earnings today.

Picked on Oct 6th at $190.25
Change since picked -16.37


SHORT UPDATE!!
10/10/99 $192.13 TARGET=167.00 STOP=200.00 RISK=5.0

POST EARNINGS DEPRESSION = extremely high risk!

Friday was a good day for the markets as most stocks closed the week on a higher note. However, mixed unemployment numbers created confusion among investors most of the day. Yahoo investors were no exception, the stock traded lower for most of the day but managed a small rally to close the session on the upside. Since Wednesday, when Yahoo posted better than expected earnings, investors have been rewarded by the recent run-up in the stock. Our plan is to take advantage of the post earnings depression that usually follows a YHOO earnings announcement. However, strong market conditions have slowed the progress of our short play. The stock shows resistance at $192, which is where Yahoo closed on Friday. If the broader markets lose their momentum, Yahoo investors will be quick to close their positions, taking profits. The stocks nearest support level is the 10-dma at $183, look for the stock to approach this level during a sell-off. Hopefully, the stock will break through and bring us closer to our target at $167. Like always, confirm negative direction from the stock prior to placing new trades. Even though we feel the stock will turn, as a word of caution, we recommend using the suggested stop.

*Editor's note: we do strongly urge caution on anyone shorting YHOO. Only the most experienced traders should do so with risk capital only. We may get some support from the broader markets because the VIX (volatility index) is very low and may presage a downturn in the larger indices.

Picked on Oct 6th at $190.25
Change since picked + 1.88


SHORT UPDATE!!
10/07/99 $190.25 TARGET=167.00 STOP=200.00 RISK=5.0

Our play is under way! This one's not for the faint hearted, those that placed trades before the announcement would have to agree. We recommended that investors wait to place trades until after the numbers were released in case the company posted better than expected earnings. Yahoo posted earnings of 14 cents per share while markets expected 9 cents per share, the difference of 5 cents was enough to send the stock soaring in after hours trading and into today. These are impressive numbers and investors have rewarded the stock because of it. It's now time to take advantage of the situation and the recent run up in the stock. We are now bearish on the stock, however, stress the need for caution with the play. We are placing a target for our play at $167 and a stop of $200. Before placing new trades confirm negative direction on the stock. Tomorrow's unemployment numbers may alter our play slightly depending upon the results of the numbers. The stock is showing resistance at $192 and should show support at its 10-dma at $183.00. If the markets continue moving to the south expect Yahoo to follow.

Picked on Oct 7th at $190.25(post earnings)
Change since picked -00.00

NEW SHORT PLAY!!
10/05/99 $173.31 TARGET= STOP= RISK=5.0 (out of 5)

POST EARNINGS PLAY = aggressive trader

Is Yahoo's earnings run over? If Monday's trading session was any indication the answer would be yes. The stock fell over four points despite a very bullish day for the broader markets. Today was a different story as investors pushed the stock higher managing to recoup most of Monday's losses. We have one trading day left until the big announcement, Yahoo will report their earnings after market close on Wednesday. If history is any indication of the future, this will be the stocks turning point and our bearish position will be at full force. However, remain cautious through Wednesday, Yahoo has one more day and investors may try to rally the stock once again. REPEAT: only extremely aggressive traders should jump in ahead of the earnings report. All others should wait for an entry after the announcement! For this reason we have not set a target and stop price for this play. The prices will be established on Thursday within the next update. For new trades, watch for failed rallies, this should be a good sign that the stock is about to turn. With broader markets shaken by today's announcement on interest rates, prepare for more volatile market conditions. To bring you up to date with the most recent news, Yahoo announced today it has launched a number of new features, a new design and content to its popular Internet shopping service, Yahoo! Shopping making online shopping quicker, easier and more convenient for consumers. Remember, conservative traders will want to wait until after earnings to avoid the possibility of a split announcement or other positive surprises.

 

STATISTICS
 
Market Cap 43.4B
in Millions
Outstanding Shares 259.0M
Float 103.6M
Average Daily Volume 9.19M
P/E 460
WHO'S BUYING?
 
Institutional Ownership 18.60%
# of Institutions 499
Insider Ownership 31%
Insider Selling neutral
ZACK's ANALYSTS
 
Strong Buy 13
Buy 18
Hold 4
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0

UP or DOWNGRADE HISTORY
 
DATE BROKERAGE ACTION FROM TO
10/7/1999 Deutsche Bc Alex. Br Upgrade Buy Strong Buy
10/7/1999 Robinson Humphrey Upgrade Hold Buy
8/18/1999 Merrill Lynch Upgrade NT Accumulate NT Buy
8/6/1999 Goldman Sachs Upgrade Mkt Outperform Recommended List
6/30/1999 Pacific Crest Coverage Initiated   Buy
6/15/1999 Thomas Weisel Coverage Initiated   Recomedation List
5/18/1999 Robinson Humphrey Coverage Initiated   NT Neutral/LT Buy
4/2/1999 JP Morgan Upgrade LT Buy Buy
3/25/1999 USB Piper Jaffray Coverage Initiated   Strong Buy
3/25/1999 NB Montgomery Coverage Initiated   Buy
3/23/1999 Jefferies & Co Upgrade Hold Buy
3/10/1999 Merrill Lynch Coverage Initiated   NT Neutral/LT Buy
3/5/1999 Hambrecht & Quist Upgrade Hold Buy

IPO INFORMATION
 
IPO DATE 4/96
with 2.99M shares @ $13
SHORT INTEREST
 
Ratio 0.73
Shares Short 7.33M
INCOME STATEMENTS
 
After-Tax
Income
38.8M
(ttm)
Sales 332.3M
(ttm)
LEGEND
M = Millions B = Billions
K = Thousands (ttm) trailing twelve months

SPLIT HISTORY
Date Ratio Announced Payable Exdate
2/1999 2:1 Jan 12 Feb 05 Feb 08
7/1998 2:1 Jul 08 Jul 31 Aug 03
8/1997 3:2 Jul 29 Aug 29 Sep 02

YHOO should be a split candidate again at: $200
 
YHOO currently is authorized for 225 mln shares. With over 204 mln shares outstanding they would need to vote to increase shares if they plan on splitting again.

EARNINGS NUMBERS
 
LAST EARNINGS WERE $0.14
ESTIMATES WERE $0.09
PREVIOUS YEAR $0.05
NEXT EARNINGS are expected on: 1/6/1999 After the Close
FIRST CALL estimates = $0.11
WHISPER NUMBER =
ZACK'S estimates = $0.11

EARNINGS HISTORY

Last Qtr - Q3 SEP99 $0.14      
  Q2 JUN99 $-0.07      
  Q1 MAR99 $0.07      
  Q4 DEC98 $0.08      
  Q3 SEP98 $0.06      
Disclaimer: The earnings history data may include special losses/gains against earnings for one-time adjustments that occurred during the quarter and therefore may not show the normal operating income.


COMPANY MEETINGS
 
Last Shareholder Meeting 5/14/1999
Next (Estimated) Shareholder Meeting 5/14/2000
--confirmed?-- Waiting on next proxy statement (DEF 14-A) for confirmation. Expected April, 2000.
Next BoD meeting (est) N/A
Next Analyst Meeting N/A


RECENT DEVELOPMENTS....

COMPANY INFO
 
ADDRESS: 3420 Central Expressway
Santa Clara, CA 95051
PHONE: (408)731-3300
FAX: (408)731-3301
EMPLOYESS: 803
OFFICERS: Timothy Koogle, Chmn/CEO
Jeff Mallett, Pres/COO
J. Yang, Chief Yahoo
D. Filo, Chief Yahoo
Gary Valenzuela, Sr. VP-Fin. & Admin/CFO
F. Nazem, CTO
Other useful info...
 
Everyone's familiar with their website: www.yahoo.com

 
   

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